Cowardly Lion
Meeting the Cowardly Lion: Crises, Crashes, Recessions … OH MY!
Dorothy: "I do not like this forest is … it's dark and creepy."
Scarecrow: "Of course I do not know, but I think you get darker before it gets lighter."
Are we really in uncharted territory? Unrest in financial systems is that for thousands of years. According to Yale professors, William Goetz and K. Mann Geert Rouwenhorst, one of the earliest examples was in Greece around 1600 for Christ when farmers were unable to pay their mortgages, the landowner returned the properties of farmers and slaves. A debt crisis sound familiar? By latter part of 1700's lenders were already creating packages of mortgages for resale to investors. Common elements of the financial crisis his fault and financial innovation. Goetz Mann and Geert also note that in the 20th century, there is a financial crisis almost every 10 years. The financial chaos in which we live through today has deep roots in history.
Although other financial crises, stock market crashes and recessions today feels scary because we experience it now. There is so much wrong and many of us have never seen anything like this in our lives seen. We will briefly review where we are relative to history, and in that context, how it would help us plan and invest for the future.
Far as recessions go, the Great Depression was the worst of the recent past, but not the worst ever. There were at least three depressions In the year 1800, which lasted more than five years, compared with the Great Depression, which began in 1929 and lasted 43 months. This month, unemployment reached 25 percent and the GDP (an largely from the growth of the economy) fell by that amount.
There is now a lot of talk, we suggest a new Great Depression. In a recent New York Times entitled article, "expect the worst and you can" Yale economics professor Robert Shiller says: "… the Great Depression itself was partly caused by the retelling of depression earlier stories. "The depression of the 1870's and 1890's were particularly long and grueling. His main point was that" the easy narrative Depression could end up as a self-fulfilling prophecy. "As they make their way through the Haunted Forest, the fears that Dorothy, Tin Man and Scarecrow felt much larger than the reality of will meet the Lions.
Just what is the difference between a recession and a depression? According to The Economist, there is no generally accepted definition of a depression. However, The Economist suggests two main criteria for distinguishing a depression of a recession: a decline in real GDP exceeds 10 percent, or a longer recession completed within three years.
According to a recent study, the causes of the recession case. A depression is the result of asset and credit bubbles burst, a contraction of credit and a decline in the general price level. Through these measures, only the general decline in prices, or deflation, has been held. Deflation, in my opinion, is the more stubborn problem and the actions of the Federal Reserve in conjunction with the stimulus package designed to tackle the problem. If it's any consolation, I have not seen a prediction of outright depression and it is my best guess that our current recession could extend until early 2010, which would put a period exceeding 26 months.
What about the history of the stock market dropping? Of the peak in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1929 to the bottom in 1932, the average dropped nearly 90 percent. Since its peak in October of 2007 the S & P 500 (a reflect the broader U.S. stocks) by about 55 percent of the first week of March. In Japan, the real estate bubble burst in 1989. Their stock dropped about 60 percent in the after two years. It is not yet returned to his highlights, but instead is still below where it was 24 years ago. Ouch!
I really believe that The events of the past year, the thorough way we save, invest and plan for future change. We have witnessed cataclysmic moves in the markets (a euphemism for the loss of wealth) and the overnight disappearance of firms. We all know that someone recently unemployed. People can not help but psychologically affected such events. The consequences of these times will be felt for years to come, like depression strongly affected the previous generation.
So what should we all? There are three important takeaways. First, there are many cases of crises, crashes and recessions. They all have their own unique characteristics and unique moments occurred in history. The financial innovations, human behavior and the causal events are different each time. This limits comparability. So the results of the current situation and the time needed to repair the damage will probably not predictable.
Second, while the bad things seem now, from a historical perspective, Times have been much more difficult.
Thirdly, the main concern is how we invest for the future, given what we know today? Most of us have heard got to live by the mantra of the long-term investor. Do not attempt to time the market, the buy and hold quality investments is one of our best bets at the assets over time. The historical data show that stocks should be approximately 10 percent return per year on average.
The reality of investing is that we rarely that the average or see trendline. Equity returns vary from year to year game. A highly respected financial author, Peter Bernstein, wrote recently in the Financial Times, "a appeal to the long-term investment decisions is essentially an appeal to trend lines. But how can we ensure that trends are destiny? Trends bending. Trends breaking. Today in fact, we have no idea where all the trend lines begin or end, or a trend line still exists. "It is quite possible that in the works and to save part of our lives we may not see the returns on stocks that we expected when we started investing.
It may sound corny, but fear and greed are still the most powerful negative emotions and we feel the fear now. This is what it is like the depths of falling markets. We're losing faith, we think we can not take. We can not tolerate lose even one U.S. dollar in the stock market. There may be circumstances unique to you, if that can not be true, but this is where individual investors usually throws in the towel. Soils in the market to avoid if we give up hope. One statistic I neglected to mention is that the market advanced almost 180 percent in the year following the trough in 1932. If you stayed for this much pain, try to be there for the win.
We must remember the lessons of this decline in terms of our individual tolerance for risk. Risk is an abstract understanding. Consultants can only help your financial ability to take risks, not your willingness to take judge, or in other words, your stomach. This is from your intestines, and the science itself. This is a very interesting topic and will probably be the subject of an upcoming article. Self-examination on the subject of risk is strongly recommended.
Finally, most of us need to do a serious evaluation of how we are invested (other lion in the enchanted forest?) May no longer fit to be so aggressive investments, particularly in light of what you may have discovered about your personal ability to take risks in the stock market. There are other ways to investment and all this continues to emphasize the need for diversification. Even in the stock category, there are ways to help reduce the risk of owning stocks.
Finally, you have three choices. First, you can choose to ignore what is happening and hope for the best. This option may involve considerable concern, depending on the individual. It suggests The lack of a plan or a strategy to you where you want to go. Second, you decided that your plan is fine and you no action at this time. This is different than option number one that you have addressed what is happening, review your situation, and made a conscious choice. There is probably more comfortable in this option because you at least consider your position. Third, can you imagine how your current strategy is gone and find that it has worked well and should not. This means reassessing where you are relative to your goals. Therefore you need a new plan and the investment strategy. I urge you all to one of these options. I suggest that at least two of them a greater peace of mind.
About the Author
Jeff Stoffer CFA, CFP® is a principal at Stoffer Wealth Advisors, a financial planning and investment advisory firm in Marin County. His website is
http://www.stofferwealthadvisors.com
In Wicked, was a character that was the Cowardly Lion?
Species. The book, music and backgrounds for both like a little cub who became the Cowardly Lion. The musical The Cowardly Lion was a Cub, set by the government officials for a history lesson on the day Shiz University Dr. Dilla Mouth, a goat, was removed because animals * Are not allowed to speak. Elphaba, born with green skin and Fiyero, a Winkie prince, pick up the Cub (in a cage) and flee the classroom. She lets the Cub and we know not the fate of the second act. The Tinman puts his grievances about his fate, following a spell of the "witch", and tells them the lion would not be a coward if she had to fight for his own battles. The Foot Book Dr. Dilla was removed in a more permanent way and a Dr. Nikidik replace him. The class is Life Sciences, no history. Dr Nikidik brings a cub in one day to explain that at a very young age it would be possible to all possibilities of expression to the difference between animals and eliminate animals. The class is furious and three girls (we never learn their names) to save the cub. * Animals are capable of speech and the expression of thoughts, wear clothes. animals are the animals that we see every day
Judy Garland – Dorothy, Scarecrow & Tin Man Meets Cowardly Lion – The Wizard Of Oz, 1939
|
|
Franklin Mint Wizard Of Oz Dolls, The Cowardly Lion, The Tin Man & The Scarecrwo $400.00 |
|
|
#1300 Hollywood Legends Wizard of Oz Ken Cowardly Lion $179.99 |
|
|
Wizard of Oz Cowardly Lion Franklin Mint Heirloom 21″ Porcelain Doll – NRFB! $157.50 |
|
|
TONNER 14″Patsy as Cowardly Lion Z14D11003 $88.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Doll Figurine Cowardly Lion 13220 $129.99 |
|
|
ADORA CHARISMA COWARDLY LION WIZARD OF OZ 20 INCH TODDLER DOLL NIB $119.99 |
|
|
Charisma The Wizard of Oz Collection – Cowardly Lion $119.99 |
|
|
Adora Cowardly Lion Wizard of Oz 20″ Vinyl Blonde Hair Brown Eyes Toddler Doll $119.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Doll Wizard of Oz Cowardly Lion 13221 $119.99 |
|
|
Adora Dolls Cowardly Lion Wizard of Oz Play Doll 2020898 $119.95 |
|
|
Adora Cowardly Lion -The Wizard Of OZ , Charisma Dolls, Vinyl and Cloth $119.95 |
|
|
ADORA -COWARDLY LION-THE WIZARD OF OZ-20″-SANDY BLONDE HAIR/BROWN EYES $119.95 |
|
|
The Wizard Of Oz Cowardly Lion Ken Doll $104.00 |
|
|
ASHTON DRAKE ADVENTURES COWARDLY LION WIZARD OF OZ DOLL $100.00 |
|
|
NEW Marie Osmond Baby Cowardly Lion Wizard of Oz With Certificate of Authenticit $95.00 |
|
|
The Wizard Of Oz Cowardly Lion Ken Doll $99.00 |
|
|
COWARDLY LION The Wizard of Oz Adora Vinyl Baby Doll 2011 DOTY Award Winner NEW $104.95 |
|
|
Ken as the Cowardly Lion Wizard of Oz NRFB Collector Hollywood Legends! 1996 $97.49 |
|
|
★★★ BARBIE 50TH ANNIVERSARY WIZARD OF OZ ★ COWARDLY LION KEN ★ MUSICAL ★★★ $90.00 |
|
|
12″ The WIZARD OF OZ KEN as COWARDLY LION BARBIE Doll Hollywood Legends NEW $99.99 |
|
|
Barbie WIZARD OF OZ Ken The Cowardly Lion Doll $95.99 |
|
|
MADAME ALEXANDER WIZARD OF OZ COWARDLY LION WINKIE GUARD DOLL #64185 $80.00 |
|
|
Marie Osmond Cowardly Lion “The Wizard of Oz” Porcelain Doll $70.00 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Porcelain Cowardly Lion 28695 NIB $79.99 |
|
|
Hollywood Legends Ken Cowardly Lion NRFB #16573 1996 $79.95 |
|
|
EFFANBEE 1993 WIZARD OF OZ COWARDLY LION 11″ DOLL & BOX $79.99 |
|
|
MINT NRFB WIZARD OF OZ COLLECTOR EDITION THE COWARDLY LION KEN BARBIE DOLL 16573 $69.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Wizard Of Oz 50230 King Cowardly Lion Open / Shut Eyes NIB Box $79.99 |
|
|
WIZARD OF OZ cowardly lion, scarecrow & toto! plush dolls, new w/ tags NICE!! $69.95 |
|
|
Cowardly Lion Wizard Oz 50th Anniversary Barbie Ken Doll Movie NRFB 2008 Musical $72.90 |
|
|
13″ plush Cowardly Lion from Wizard of Oz 1987 with tags, good condition w/stand $79.99 |
|
|
ODD Resin Cloth Wizard of Oz Cowardly Lion Doll LOOK $68.00 |
|
|
Cowardly Lion #13221 $65.95 |
|
|
Hamilton Gifts Wizard of Oz- Cowardly Lion $59.00 |
|
|
The Wizard of Oz Cowardly Lion Ken NRFB Pink Label Barbie Doll $62.99 |
|
|
The Wizard of Oz – Barbie 50th Anniversary / Pink Label – Musical Cowardly Lion $74.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Doll Wizard of Oz Cowardly Lion#13220 $72.25 |
|
|
KEN MATTEL TIN MAN COWARDLY LION AND SCARECROW DOLLS MIB LITTLE DAMAGE BOXS 1999 $69.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Cowardly Lion Wizard of Oz 8″ Doll! Close Out Price! $59.99 |
|
|
M.A – COWARDLY LION – FREE STAND & SHIPPING $69.95 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Cowardly Lion #46330 NIB $59.95 |
|
|
The Cowardly Lion MIB by Mary Tretter for Ashton-Drake 1994 $59.95 |
|
|
RARE 2000 Wizard of Oz Ken (Barbie) as Cowardly Lion $59.49 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Oz cowardly lion #46330 – NIB – collectible doll – rare $59.95 |
|
|
WIZARD OF OZ 1999 Mattel KEN Doll COWARDLY LION MIB $65.79 |
|
|
NEW Goodreau COWARDLY LION 16″ 17″ BJD Ball Jointed Doll Outfit Wizard of Oz $59.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Doll Wizard of Oz Cowardly Lion#13220 $61.19 |
|
|
WIZARD OF OZ SCARECROW 14″ Doll by PRESENTS tin man COWARDLY LION DOLLS $61.09 |
|
|
Dolls Wizard of Oz Dorothy Scarecrow Tinman Cowardly lion Collectible Xmas Rare $50.00 |
|
|
Doll Wizard of Oz Figures Dorothy Cowardly Lion Scarecrow Kelly Barbie Xmas Gift $50.00 |
|
|
Ken~THE WIZARD OF OZ~Cowardly Lion Doll $49.99 |
|
|
MADAME ALEXANDER COWARDLY LION WIZARD OF OZ JACK SCULPT WENDY SIZE DOLL NIB $59.99 |
|
|
MADAME ALEXANDER DOLL ~ COWARDLY LION WIZARD OF OZ ~ $59.95 |
|
|
Ken doll as the Tin Man & Cowardly Lion Wizard of Oz poseable Mattel dolls $50.00 |
|
|
Barbie Ken as the Cowardly Lion in the Wizard of Oz $49.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander : 8″ Cowardly Lion $50.00 |
|
|
Doll Cowardly Lion 15″ Trevco Warner Bros. Toys TREVCO Yellow Brick Rd $55.00 |
|
|
Barbie The Wizard of Oz Cowardly Lion Doll Pink Label Collection $29.99 |
|
|
COWARDLY LION DOLL & MEDAL OF COURAGE WIZARD OF OZ 1998 NRFB 15” WB TOY NEW $54.99 |
|
|
BRAND NEW – WIZARD OF OZ KEN AS THE COWARDLY LION BARBIE DOLL -HOLLYWOOD LEGENDS $54.99 |
|
|
8″ Cowardly Lion MIB by Madame Alexander 2000 $45.00 |
|
|
KEN AS COWARDLY LION – THEWIZARD OF OZ – NEW $45.00 |
|
|
BARBIE KEN DOLL AS COWARDLY LION WIZARD OF OZ HOLLYWOOD LEGENDS MINT IN BOX MIB $39.99 |
|
|
KEN AS COWARDLY LION-THE WIZARD OF OZ-1999–NRFB-COURAGE $40.00 |
|
|
BARBIE Wizard of Oz Set DOROTHY,GLINDA,TIN MAN,COWARDLY LION,SCARECROW 1999 $36.00 |
|
|
Madame Alexander/Cowardly Lion 8″ $40.00 |
|
|
MADAME ALEXANDER DOLL 8″ COWARDLY LION #140431 $50.00 |
|
|
Wizard Of Oz Ken As Cowardly Lion $40.00 |
|
|
2000 Madame Alexander- Cowardly Lion #13220 $49.99 |
|
|
Barbie The Wizard of Oz Collection Cowardly Lion Ken Doll NRFB Free Ship U.S. $49.99 |
|
|
Ken as the Cowardly Lion from Wizard of Oz – Hollywood Legends Collection – New $49.99 |
|
|
Barbie Ken Cowardly Lion – Wizard of Oz Doll – Pink Label – BNIB $19.54 |
|
|
Wizard of Oz Kelly Scarecrow Tinman Dorothy Cowardly Lion Barbie NRFB $49.00 |
|
|
KEN AS COWARDLY LION IN WIZARD OF OZ. HOLLYWOOD LEGENDS, ’96 NEW IN BOX+SHIPPER $35.14 |
|
|
1999 BARBIE DOLL COLLECTION – Ken As The Cowardly Lion – Wizard Of Oz MINT $39.00 |
|
|
Wizard of Oz Ken Cowardly Lion Barbie Doll Mattel RARE $44.99 |
|
|
MADAME ALEXANDER “Cowardly Lion” Authentic Doll WIZARD OF OZ Collection $34.99 |
|
|
BARBIE’S KEN AS COWARDLY LION FROM WIZARD OF OZ 1999 $35.00 |
|
|
1999 – RARE FIND – KEN AS THE COWARDLY LION IN THE WIZARD OF OZ – REALLY NEAT! $29.69 |
|
|
1993 Alexander 8″ Storyland Cowardly Lion #431 MIB $42.00 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Cowardly Lion 10″ NIB Wizard of Oz $41.50 |
|
|
MADAME ALEXANDER COWARDLY LION WIZARD OF OZ DOLL NIB $30.00 |
|
|
Cowardly Lion Wizard of Oz Pink Box Barbie Ken Doll Movie NRFB 1999 Costume $32.90 |
|
|
Wizard Of Oz Cowardly Lion Barbie Doll 2006 $25.00 |
|
|
1999 Wizard of Oz Cowardly Lion Ken Barbie doll NRFB Mint! $39.99 |
|
|
Vintage 1988 Turner Wizard of Oz Doll Cowardly Lion MIB $30.40 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Cowardly Lion 8″ Doll GREAT SHAPE! $29.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Cowardly Lion 140431 With Original Box + Stand $19.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander 6″ Porcelain Cowardly Lion Wizard Of Oz w Certificate NIB Box $29.99 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Storyland Classics Cowardly Lion $25.00 |
|
|
Madame Alexander Cowardly Lion 9″ Posable Doll “Wizard of Oz” NIB $28.58 |
|
|
Wizard of Oz,Yellow Brick Rd Collection, Cowardly Lion $22.00 |
|
|
TO OZ COWARDLY LION 8” MADAME ALEXANDER DOLL $25.00 |
|
|
1998 Cowardly Lion Wizard of Oz 16″ doll Yellow Brick Road Trevco Lion doll $32.00 |
|
|
NIB BARBIE DOLL SIZE 1988 THE WIZARD OF OZ COWARDLY LION $22.49 |
|
|
EFFANBEE 1993 WIZARD OF OZ COWARDLY LION 11″ DOLL & BOX $30.19 |
|
|
The Wizard of Oz Sky Kids Toddler Cowardly Lion Doll $29.99 |
|
|
Petite Cowardly Lion by Madame Alexander New 5 inches tall $24.99 |
|
|
SEYMORE MANN@COWARDLY LION DOLL/STAND@10″@PORCELAIN@COA $19.99 |
|
|
Barbie Ken Doll Cowardly Lion Wizard of Oz Box Movie NRFB 1999 $29.95 |
